India and Pakistan’s escalating military attacks against one another in recent weeks, which brought the two antagonistic powers closer to major conflict than they had been in years, called attention to another stakeholder in the region: China. The global superpower has a keen interest in what happens in its national backyard.
Following last month’s terrorist assault on tourists in the contested Kashmir region, long claimed by both India and Pakistan, the two nuclear-armed nations’ escalating violence seemed to resolve with a shaky but stable weekend ceasefire. But China’s shadow looms large over the events of this past week, and the hints at the possibility of future violence between South Asia’s longtime adversaries.
A ‘rich intelligence harvest’ for China
Pakistan’s claim that it forces used Chinese made J-10C fighter jets to down Indian aircraft “including the advanced French-made Rafale” may have provided the world’s “first real glimpse” at how “advanced Chinese military technology performs against proven Western hardware,” CNN said. While it hasn’t fought a major war in nearly half a century, China has “raced to modernize its armed forces.” As Pakistan’s “primary arms supplier” Beijing is “likely watching intently” to gauge how well its weapons “have and potentially will perform in real combat.” With China supplying the “vast majority” of Pakistan’s military purchases, and India turning westward for its own arms, the result has “injected superpower politics into South Asia’s longest-running and most intractable conflict,” The New York Times said — particularly as China has “deepened its investment in its advocacy and patronage of Pakistan” in the face of warming Indian-American relations.
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The “most important global aspect” of this latest Indian-Pakistani violence is that for the first time “Chinese military equipment has been tested against top notch western equipment,” said Sushant Singh, lecturer at South Asian Studies at Yale University, at Financial Times.
The latest spate of violence between India and Pakistan also offers a “potentially rich intelligence harvest” for China, which has advanced enough capabilities to “deeply scrutinize Indian actions in real time” across border installations, naval fleets, “as well as from space,” Reuters said. While both India and China have “taken steps to strengthen their military facilities and capabilities” along their shared border, China’s host of orbital satellites in particular “packs an intelligence gathering punch” compared to Indian capabilities.
A ‘harmonious coexistence’ vital to ‘peace, stability and development’ in the region
While China and Pakistan enjoy close military and diplomatic ties, Beijing has conspicuously — and perhaps surprisingly — pushed for a measure of restraint during this latest spate of Kashmir-inspired violence. India and Pakistan both are “important countries in South Asia,” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said late last month. The “harmonious coexistence” between the two rival nations is “vital to the peace, stability and development of the region. Continued violence between India and Pakistan could threaten China’s “very important equities in Pakistan, including sizeable levels of infrastructure investment and other assets,” said regional analyst Michael Kugelman to the South China Morning Post. Moreover, Beijing’s “recent efforts to improve relations with India may limit its response to diplomatic support for Pakistan,” said The Diplomat.
At the same time, Pakistan’s alleged use of Chinese-made fighter jets to successfully repel Indian planes is “essentially a powerful advertisement” for China’s arms industry, said military observer Antony Wong Dong to CNN. “All countries potentially looking to buy fighter jets, as well as China’s regional rivals, will need to seriously reconsider: how should they face this new reality?”
